Paper Title
TIME SERIES FORECASTING FOR THE MONTHLY SALES OF BEER USING ARIMA MODELLING (CASE STUDY OF ASMARA BREWERY COMPANy~ERITREA)
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Registration ID: IJNRD_306329
Published ID: IJNRD2505058
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Keywords
Time series, Sales Forecasting, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA model, Asmara Brewery Company-Eritrea
Abstract
Sales forecasting is an important process for every business to master regardless of the company size or industry and affects almost every area of activity in industry. The importance of sales forecast can never be underestimated. The choice of right forecasting technique is essential for a company to operate efficiently. Accurate forecasts allow the company to answer customer demand better and hence, the company to increase its sales and decrease its costs. The ability to forecast sales more accurately than competitors may also work as a valuable competitive advantage as the company is better at exploiting positive market opportunities while avoiding those that destroy value. The purpose of this thesis is to explore how an accurate short term sales forecast can be provided and also to apply modern forecasting for the study and analysis of monthly time series data for the beer sales of Asmara brewery Company-Eritrea, and represented in beer for the period (2010 – 2019) by using the ARIMA models known as Box-Jenkins method in all its stages (Diagnostic, Estimation, Adequacy test of model, Forecasting). The statistical R-Software was used in the analysis. The results of the analysis of the data were shown after estimating ARIMA models. And through the trade-offs between them using Forecasting Accuracy Measurements, it was appeared that the most appropriate model to forecast sales of the company for the beer is ARIMA (1,1,1); Based on this model the forecasting of monthly sales has been done for the period of upcoming two years. The forecasting values are consistent with the values of the original time series which show the efficiency of the model. According to forecasting extracted from the estimated model that the company’s sales will decrease in the coming years.
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How To Cite (APA)
ERMIAS BERHANE MEHARI (May-2025). TIME SERIES FORECASTING FOR THE MONTHLY SALES OF BEER USING ARIMA MODELLING (CASE STUDY OF ASMARA BREWERY COMPANy~ERITREA) . INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 10(5), a639-a641. https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2505058.pdf
Issue
Volume 10 Issue 5, May-2025
Pages : a639-a641
Other Publication Details
Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_306329
Published Paper Id: IJNRD2505058
Research Area: Mathematics All
Author Type: Foreign Author
Country: Asmara, Asmara, Eritrea
Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2505058.pdf
Published Paper URL: https://ijnrd.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJNRD2505058
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