Panel ARDL modelling of trade and economic indicators: Evidence from India and South Africa

Panel ARDL modelling of trade and economic indicators: Evidence from India and South Africa

Registration ID: IJNRD_222867

Published ID: IJNRD2405822

DOI: Click Here to Get

Anukrati Singh , Dr. Madhu Bhatia , Prof.R.K. Maheshwari

KEYWORDS: Panel ARDL Model, Economic Growth, Trade & GDP, Emerging Economies, Cointegration.

Abstract This study investigates the long-run and short-run relationships between key economic indicators—GDP, exports, imports, trade openness, and the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)—in India and South Africa using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The primary objective is to explore how these variables interact to influence economic growth in these two emerging economies. The analysis spans from [start year] to [end year], utilizing annual data sourced from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In the long run, our findings indicate that exports, trade openness, and REER have statistically significant impacts on GDP. Specifically, a 1-unit increase in exports is associated with a substantial 0.838005-unit increase in GDP, while trade openness and REER contribute 0.390555 units and 0.253792 units to GDP, respectively. However, imports do not exhibit a statistically significant effect on GDP in the long run, as evidenced by a p-value of 0.5468. The short-run dynamics reveal distinct patterns. Imports have a highly significant positive impact on GDP, with a coefficient of 0.1828948 and a p-value of 0.0000, indicating that increased imports are beneficial for short-term economic growth. In contrast, exports and REER do not show statistically significant short-run effects on GDP. Interestingly, trade openness displays a marginally significant negative impact on GDP in the short run, suggesting that while it is beneficial in the long run, there might be short-term adjustment costs or transitional dynamics that temporarily hinder growth. The error correction term, with a coefficient of -0.126316, is not statistically significant, suggesting that deviations from long-run equilibrium do not rapidly correct in the short run. This indicates that the economies of India and South Africa may require longer periods to adjust to shocks and return to their long-term growth paths. Overall, this study underscores the importance of exports and trade openness for long-term economic growth in India and South Africa, while highlighting the significant role of imports in driving short-term economic dynamics. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster sustainable economic growth through targeted trade and exchange rate policies.

Published Paper   E-Certificate

"Panel ARDL modelling of trade and economic indicators: Evidence from India and South Africa", IJNRD - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (www.IJNRD.org), ISSN:2456-4184, Vol.9, Issue 5, page no.I196-I209, May-2024, Available :https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2405822.pdf

Volume 9 Issue 5, May-2024

Pages : I196-I209

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_222867

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2405822

Downloads: 000121123

Research Area: Commerce

Country: LUCKNOW, Uttar Pradesh, India

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2405822.pdf

Published Paper URL: https://ijnrd.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJNRD2405822

Journal Name: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT(IJNRD)

ISSN: 2456-4184 | IMPACT FACTOR: 8.76 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2016

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