Association Among CPI, IIP AND Crude Oil Prices

Registration ID: IJNRD_215537

Published ID: IJNRD2405705

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Achint Wadhwa

CPI, IIP, CRUDE OIL PRICES

This research delves into the complex interconnections among the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and Crude Oil Prices in the Indian economic landscape. These variables play pivotal roles in shaping the country's economic trajectory, influencing policy decisions, and impacting the daily lives of its citizens. Understanding their relationships is crucial for policymakers, economists, and market participants to formulate effective strategies and navigate the intricate web of economic dynamics. The study employs a rigorous time-series analysis spanning a substantial period to unravel the intricate associations among CPI, IIP, and Crude Oil Prices in India. By utilizing advanced econometric techniques such as Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, Granger causality tests, and impulse response functions, the research aims to provide comprehensive insights into both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a crucial gauge of inflationary pressures, reflecting changes in the average prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. Fluctuations in CPI not only impact purchasing power but also influence interest rates, investment decisions, and overall economic stability. Index of Industrial Production (IIP), on the other hand, measures the performance of various sectors within the industrial landscape, serving as a barometer of economic activity and production trends. A robust industrial sector is vital for employment generation, income growth, and sustainable economic development. Lastly, Crude Oil Prices exert significant influence on the Indian economy, given the country's heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Oil price fluctuations can disrupt fiscal balances, trade dynamics, and overall macroeconomic stability. The findings of this research contribute to a nuanced understanding of the dynamic relationships among CPI, IIP, and Crude Oil Prices in India. Through VAR models, the study examines how changes in one variable affect the others over time, capturing the feedback loops and interdependencies within the system. Granger causality tests shed light on the directionality of causality among the variables, discerning whether past values of one variable can predict future values of another. Additionally, impulse response functions offer insights into the short-term reactions of each variable to shocks in the system, unravelling the transmission channels and dynamics of adjustment. By unravelling the intricate web of interactions among CPI, IIP, and Crude Oil Prices, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers tasked with managing inflation, promoting industrial growth, and mitigating the impact of external shocks. Understanding how these variables influence each other allows for more informed decision-making, enabling policymakers to design targeted interventions and policy measures to stabilize the economy, foster sustainable growth, and enhance the overall welfare of the populace. Moreover, the findings offer actionable intelligence for investors, businesses, and analysts seeking to navigate the Indian economic landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks effectively.

Published Paper   E-Certificate

Achint Wadhwa (May-2024). Association Among CPI, IIP AND Crude Oil Prices. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 9(5), g863-g879. https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2405705.pdf

Volume 9 Issue 5, May-2024

Pages : g863-g879

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_215537

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2405705

Research Area: Commerce

Author Type: Indian Author

Country: North Delhi, Delhi, India

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2405705.pdf

Published Paper URL: https://ijnrd.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJNRD2405705

Journal Name: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT(IJNRD)

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