IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR

IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR

Registration ID: IJNRD_203496

Published ID: IJNRD2308183

DOI: Click Here to Get

William Henderson Harawa , Eric Kiprotich Bett , Lucy Wangare Ngare

External trade; Export-led-growth; ARDL; Granger causality.

This article empirically evaluates the dynamic impact of Malawi's disaggregated agricultural exports (Tobacco, Tea, and Sugar) on the country's economic growth (proxied as GDP) from 1968 to 2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to estimate agricultural exports' long and short-run impact on Malawi's real GDP. In contrast, the Toda Yamamoto-Granger non-causality technique assessed the causal direction. The results show that Sugar has a significant short and long-run impact on Malawi's GDP, while Tobacco exhibits only short-run effects. Granger causality estimates revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between Sugar exports and GDP and a reverse unidirectional causality from GDP to Tobacco exports. The bidirectional causality result indicates that Sugar and real GDP can predict each other in the future. Likewise, the reverse unidirectional causality might indicate ineffective management of export earnings, which may not be optimally reinvested into Tobacco production. To expand export earnings, this study recommends that the Malawi Government unwaveringly pursue an export diversification strategy and premiumization of Tea products, and divesting away from the Tobacco industry to other highly valued cash crops. However, it is critical to carefully analyze the potential impact of divestment through a series of ex-ante simulations to understand the welfare implications of this policy prescription. In light of the Tobacco industry's bleak prospects and persistent underperformance, the government of Malawi has a justifiable rationale to prioritize intensifying Sugar cane production.

Published Paper   E-Certificate

"IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR", IJNRD - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (www.IJNRD.org), ISSN:2456-4184, Vol.8, Issue 8, page no.b713-b722, August-2023, Available :https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183.pdf

Volume 8 Issue 8, August-2023

Pages : b713-b722

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_203496

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2308183

Downloads: 000121190

Research Area: Life Sciences 

Country: Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183.pdf

Published Paper URL: https://ijnrd.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJNRD2308183

Journal Name: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT(IJNRD)

ISSN: 2456-4184 | IMPACT FACTOR: 8.76 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2016

An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 8.76 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator

Publisher: IJNRD (IJ Publication) Janvi Wave

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License and The Open Definition

Call For Paper - Volume 10 | Issue 8 | August 2025

IJNRD is Scholarly open access journals, Peer-reviewed, and Refereed Journals, High Impact factor 8.76 (Calculate by google scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool), Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Indexing in all major database & Metadata, Citation Generator, Digital Object Identifier(DOI) with Open-Access Publications.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (IJNRD) aims to explore advances in research pertaining to applied, theoretical and experimental Technological studies. The goal is to promote scientific information interchange between researchers, developers, engineers, students, and practitioners working in and around the world. IJNRD will provide an opportunity for practitioners and educators of engineering field to exchange research evidence, models of best practice and innovative ideas.

Indexing In Google Scholar, SSRN, ResearcherID-Publons, Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Microsoft Academic, Academia.edu, arXiv.org, Research Gate, CiteSeerX, ResearcherID Thomson Reuters, Mendeley : reference manager, DocStoc, ISSUU, Scribd, and many more

How to submit the paper?

Important Dates for Current issue

Paper Submission Open For: August 2025

Current Issue: Volume 10 | Issue 8

Last Date for Paper Submission: Till 31-Aug-2025

Notification of Review Result: Within 1-2 Days after Submitting paper.

Publication of Paper: Within 01-02 Days after Submititng documents.

Frequency: Monthly (12 issue Annually).

Journal Type: International Peer-reviewed, Refereed, and Open Access Journal.

Subject Category: Research Area