IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR

Registration ID: IJNRD_203496

Published ID: IJNRD2308183

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William Henderson Harawa, Eric Kiprotich Bett, Lucy Wangare Ngare

External trade; Export-led-growth; ARDL; Granger causality.

This article empirically evaluates the dynamic impact of Malawi's disaggregated agricultural exports (Tobacco, Tea, and Sugar) on the country's economic growth (proxied as GDP) from 1968 to 2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to estimate agricultural exports' long and short-run impact on Malawi's real GDP. In contrast, the Toda Yamamoto-Granger non-causality technique assessed the causal direction. The results show that Sugar has a significant short and long-run impact on Malawi's GDP, while Tobacco exhibits only short-run effects. Granger causality estimates revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between Sugar exports and GDP and a reverse unidirectional causality from GDP to Tobacco exports. The bidirectional causality result indicates that Sugar and real GDP can predict each other in the future. Likewise, the reverse unidirectional causality might indicate ineffective management of export earnings, which may not be optimally reinvested into Tobacco production. To expand export earnings, this study recommends that the Malawi Government unwaveringly pursue an export diversification strategy and premiumization of Tea products, and divesting away from the Tobacco industry to other highly valued cash crops. However, it is critical to carefully analyze the potential impact of divestment through a series of ex-ante simulations to understand the welfare implications of this policy prescription. In light of the Tobacco industry's bleak prospects and persistent underperformance, the government of Malawi has a justifiable rationale to prioritize intensifying Sugar cane production.

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William Henderson Harawa, Eric Kiprotich Bett, & Lucy Wangare Ngare (August-2023). IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 8(8), b713-b722. https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183.pdf

Volume 8 Issue 8, August-2023

Pages : b713-b722

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_203496

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2308183

Research Area: Life Sciences 

Author Type: Foreign Author

Country: Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183.pdf

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