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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT International Peer Reviewed & Refereed Journals, Open Access Journal ISSN Approved Journal No: 2456-4184 | Impact factor: 8.76 | ESTD Year: 2016 Scholarly open access journals, Peer-reviewed, and Refereed Journals, Impact factor 8.76 (Calculate by google scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool) , Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Indexing in all major database & Metadata, Citation Generator, Digital Object Identifier(DOI) |
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| Paper Title: | IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR |
| Authors Name: | William Henderson Harawa , Eric Kiprotich Bett , Lucy Wangare Ngare |
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IJNRD_203496
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| Published Paper Id: | IJNRD2308183 |
| Published In: | Volume 8 Issue 8, August-2023 |
| DOI: | |
| Abstract: | This article empirically evaluates the dynamic impact of Malawi's disaggregated agricultural exports (Tobacco, Tea, and Sugar) on the country's economic growth (proxied as GDP) from 1968 to 2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to estimate agricultural exports' long and short-run impact on Malawi's real GDP. In contrast, the Toda Yamamoto-Granger non-causality technique assessed the causal direction. The results show that Sugar has a significant short and long-run impact on Malawi's GDP, while Tobacco exhibits only short-run effects. Granger causality estimates revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between Sugar exports and GDP and a reverse unidirectional causality from GDP to Tobacco exports. The bidirectional causality result indicates that Sugar and real GDP can predict each other in the future. Likewise, the reverse unidirectional causality might indicate ineffective management of export earnings, which may not be optimally reinvested into Tobacco production. To expand export earnings, this study recommends that the Malawi Government unwaveringly pursue an export diversification strategy and premiumization of Tea products, and divesting away from the Tobacco industry to other highly valued cash crops. However, it is critical to carefully analyze the potential impact of divestment through a series of ex-ante simulations to understand the welfare implications of this policy prescription. In light of the Tobacco industry's bleak prospects and persistent underperformance, the government of Malawi has a justifiable rationale to prioritize intensifying Sugar cane production. |
| Keywords: | External trade; Export-led-growth; ARDL; Granger causality. |
| Cite Article: | "IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF MALAWI: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TOBACCO, TEA, AND SUGAR", International Journal of Novel Research and Development (www.ijnrd.org), ISSN:2456-4184, Vol.8, Issue 8, page no.b713-b722, August-2023, Available :http://www.ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183.pdf |
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| ISSN: |
2456-4184 | IMPACT FACTOR: 8.76 Calculated By Google Scholar| ESTD YEAR: 2016 An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 8.76 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator |
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Published Paper ID:IJNRD2308183 Registration ID: 203496 Published In: Volume 8 Issue 8, August-2023 DOI (Digital Object Identifier): Page No: b713-b722 Country: Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya Research Area: Life Sciences Publisher : IJ Publication Published Paper URL : https://www.ijnrd.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJNRD2308183 Published Paper PDF: https://www.ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2308183 |
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ISSN: 2456-4184
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